Drought conditions have led to a third consecutive year of below-average food production. This year, the risk of an El Niño event (associated with below-average rainfall, especially in the south) from October to December is 80%.?There is also an increased chance of an armyworm outbreak in the 2018/19 rainy season due to El Niño.?In addition the country has high exposure to cyclones and heavy rains.?
1.26 million people are estimated to be severely food insecure in the Grand Sud and Grand Sud-Est regions. In the Grand Sud region the situation is critical with about 256,750 people likely to face IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) food insecurity levels, and nearly 631,900 people likely to face IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) as the area has not recovered from the drought effect of the El Niño in 2016 and received below average rainfall in the 2017-2018 agricultural season. As a result, many households are selling livestock in higher numbers and at lower prices than usual, affecting their ability to pay for and access basic services.?
Plague is endemic in Madagascar where the health system is weak and WASH infrastructure limited, with seasonal peaks from September to March.?In addition a measles outbreak was confirmed in Antananarivo in October.?
INFORM measures Madagascar's risk of humanitarian crisis and disaster to be medium, at 5/10. Vulnerability is measured at 4.2/10.?
19/03: Measles outbreak: a total of 105,170 confirmed cases and 1,201 deaths (CFR 1.3%) have been reported since 3 September 2018. About 70% of cases reported are persons aged 1 to 14. 104/114 districts (across all 22 regions) are in epidemic phase. The overall disease trend continues to decline. This additional stress on health systems may hinder ongoing plague response.?
Health: Over 60% of Madagascar’s people live more than 5km from a health center, often in very remote and difficult to reach areas. Health personnel are unevenly distributed, drug and medical supplies are prone to stock outs and are unavailable in some areas.?
Food security: Acute food insecurity still impacting Grand Sud in Madagascar with over 1 million people in need urgent food assistance (IPC 3 and 4).
Water supply: An estimated 850,000 people have limited or no access to safe water for drinking, cooking and personal hygiene, particularly in southern regions.?