Moroccan authorities have dismantled shelters and arrested over 6,500 migrants between July and September 2018, forcing thousands of migrants to increasingly move to cities, and away from makeshift shelters in forests near Tangier and Nador, where they waited to cross the Mediterranean sea to reach Europe. There are various informal urban camps that are likely to have an increasing number of migrants in Morocco. The informal camp in Ouled Ziane, Casablanca is one such camps with an increasing number of migrants reported since the beginning of December 2018.
These scenarios consider how migration dynamics within and via West and North Africa (including across the Mediterranean Sea) might evolve in the first half of 2019 and the potential humanitarian consequences.
These scenarios are not attempts to predict the future. Rather, they describe situations that could occur in the coming six months, and are designed to highlight the possible impacts and humanitarian consequences associated with each scenario. The aim is to support strategic planning, create awareness and promote preparedness activities for policymakers and other actors working on migration. The time frame is until June 2019 although the scenarios may remain valid some months longer.
ACAPS has developed these scenarios for the Mixed Migration Centre (MMC) under the DFID-funded Safety, Support and Solutions – Phase 2 programme.