ACAPS and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies have produced a new set of Central and West Mediterranean migration scenarios, outlining possible developments in migration via Libya, Italy, Spain and other transit countries over the next six months.
Following scenario-building workshops in Budapest in March, four scenarios were identified:
- Slight increase in migration via North Africa to Europe
- Large increase in migration in readmissions
- Enforced closure of central Mediterranean route
- Improved internal security in Libya
The report outlines triggers that could drive these scenarios, as well as the impact and humanitarian consequences of each scenario.