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Country analysis

Mozambique


Mozambique is particularly vulnerable to floods, cyclones, and droughts, with cyclones occurring approximately five times yearly. In the first half of 2024, cyclones and Tropical Storm Filipo affected multiple provinces (especially Nampula, Sofala, and Zambezia), disrupting agricultural activities. The cyclone season is often from November–April. These climate-related hazards have resulted in food insecurity, displacement, and a significant loss of lives and livelihoods. Several factors, including El Niño (which severely affected the 2023–2024 rainy and agricultural seasons), sustain acute food insecurity conditions.

Northern Mozambique is currently facing a humanitarian crisis because of natural hazards and an armed insurgency. Since 2017, the insurgency by non-state armed groups in the region had led to the mass displacement of nearly 600,000 people by January 2025. In October 2024, nearly five million people (24% of the country's assessed population) were projected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse food insecurity levels by March 2025. Among them, approximately 912,000 people were likely to experience Emergency (IPC Phase 4) conditions – a deterioration compared to the previous period (August–September 2024). Cyclones Chido, Dikeledi, and Jude also had a significant impact in the region between December 2024 and March 2025, further worsening food insecurity.

(WB accessed 18/02/2025, WorldData.info accessed 09/04/2025, UNHCR accessed 18/02/2025, IPC 28/01/2025, ICG accessed 18/02/2025)

Latest updates on country situation

22 April 2025

By 16 April, an attack by a non-state armed group on 31 March in Nacuale village, Ancuabe district, Cabo Delgado province, had displaced around 15,000 people, mostly women (4,669) and children (7,565). The displaced have sought refuge in various locations, including displacement sites and host communities across Ancuabe, Macomia, Montepuez, and Quissanga districts. The most pressing needs are food, shelter, NFIs, and protection. This attack exemplifies the continued violence against civilians in northern Mozambique since 2017, leading to repeated waves of displacement. Such attacks often involve looting, arrests, abductions, targeted killings, and the destruction of infrastructure, as non-state armed groups aim to demonstrate their presence and instil fear in the population. Displaced people often experience overcrowding in makeshift settlements and host communities, which increases the risk of disease outbreaks. Disruptions to agricultural activities and limited access to markets aggravate food insecurity, affecting both displaced people and host communities.
(RI 28/06/2024, IOM 18/04/2025, UNHCR 21/04/2025)

current crises
in Mozambique


These crises have been identified through the INFORM Severity Index, a tool for measuring and comparing the severity of humanitarian crises globally.

Read more about the Index

MOZ013 - 2025 Cyclone season

Last updated 31/03/2025


Drivers

Cyclone

Crisis level

Country

Severity level

3.4 High

Access constraints

3.0

MOZ012 - Drought

Last updated 31/03/2025


Drivers

Drought

Crisis level

Country

Severity level

3.3 High

Access constraints

1.0

MOZ001 - Multiple Crises

Last updated 31/03/2025


Drivers

Conflict
Displacement
Cyclone
Drought

Crisis level

Country

Severity level

3.9 High

Access constraints

3.0

MOZ004 - Violent Insurgency in Cabo Delgado

Last updated 31/03/2025


Drivers

Conflict
Displacement

Crisis level

Country

Severity level

3.3 High

Access constraints

3.0

Analysis products
on Mozambique

Mozambique: impact of tropical cyclone Jude

25 March 2025

Mozambique: impact of tropical cyclone Jude

DOCUMENT / PDF / 263 KB

The passage of Tropical Cyclone Jude led to heavy rainfall and flooding, causing injuries, casualties, and extensive damage. By 18 March, the cyclone had resulted in 16 deaths, one missing person, and 135 injuries. By 19 March, over 390,000 people had been affected (85% in Nampula), and more than 89,000 houses were destroyed or damaged.

Natural hazards
Mozambique: Escalating civil unrest leads to increased protection risks and poverty

20 December 2024

Mozambique: Escalating civil unrest leads to increased protection risks and poverty

DOCUMENT / PDF / 260 KB

This report provides an analysis of the risk of escalating civil unrest in Mozambique following the general elections on 9 October 2024. The report provides a brief of the current context in the country, identifies the factors that could lead to further civil unrest, and outlines key impacts should such a risk materialise, including effects on humanitarian operations.

Anticipatory analysisConflict and violence
Mozambique: humanitarian impact of Tropical Cyclone Chido

19 December 2024

Mozambique: humanitarian impact of Tropical Cyclone Chido

DOCUMENT / PDF / 298 KB

On the morning of 15 December, Tropical Cyclone Chido made landfall in Cabo Delgado province, northern Mozambique, as a Category 4 cyclone. The cyclone caused high winds, heavy rainfall, and an increased risk of coastal flooding. By 17 December, 128,000 people (90,000 of whom are children) had been affected in Cabo Delgado province and 46,000 in Nampula province. 

Natural hazards
Mozambique: conflict in Cabo Delgado

17 April 2024

Mozambique: conflict in Cabo Delgado

DOCUMENT / PDF / 430 KB

Since December 2023, the northern region of Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province has seen an escalation in attacks characterised by violence towards civilians and damage to houses, churches, schools, and health centres. 

Conflict and violence
Mozambique: impact of the five-year conflict in Cabo Delgado

07 July 2023

Mozambique: impact of the five-year conflict in Cabo Delgado

DOCUMENT / PDF / 615 KB

In October 2017, violence erupted in Cabo Delgado, northern Mozambique, when armed men occupied the city of Mocimboa da Praia for two days and attacked three police stations, killing 17 people. The report aims to analyse the drivers of conflict in northern Mozambique, particularly in Cabo Delgado province, and their humanitarian impact. The report also includes an overview of people’s coping mechanisms following the conflict.

Conflict and violence
View more

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Cabo Delgado: health facilities under siege

Mozambique

Cabo Delgado: health facilities under siege


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