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Country analysis

Mozambique


Mozambique is particularly vulnerable to floods, cyclones, and droughts, with cyclones occurring approximately five times yearly. In the first half of 2024, cyclones and Tropical Storm Filipo affected multiple provinces (especially Nampula, Sofala, and Zambezia), disrupting agricultural activities. The cyclone season is often from November–April. These climate-related hazards have resulted in food insecurity, displacement, and a significant loss of lives and livelihoods. Several factors, including El Niño (which severely affected the 2023–2024 rainy and agricultural seasons), sustain acute food insecurity conditions.

Northern Mozambique is currently facing a humanitarian crisis because of natural hazards and an armed insurgency. Since 2017, the insurgency by non-state armed groups in the region had led to the mass displacement of nearly 600,000 people by January 2025. In October 2024, nearly five million people (24% of the country's assessed population) were projected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse food insecurity levels by March 2025. Among them, approximately 912,000 people were likely to experience Emergency (IPC Phase 4) conditions – a deterioration compared to the previous period (August–September 2024). Cyclones Chido, Dikeledi, and Jude also had a significant impact in the region between December 2024 and March 2025, further worsening food insecurity.

(WB accessed 18/02/2025, WorldData.info accessed 09/04/2025, UNHCR accessed 18/02/2025, IPC 28/01/2025, ICG accessed 18/02/2025)

Mozambique is particularly vulnerable to floods, cyclones, and droughts, with cyclones occurring approximately five times yearly. In the first half of 2024, cyclones and Tropical Storm Filipo affected multiple provinces (especially Nampula, Sofala, and Zambezia), disrupting agricultural activities. The cyclone season is often from November–April. These climate-related hazards have resulted in food insecurity, displacement, and a significant loss of lives and livelihoods. Several factors, including El Niño (which severely affected the 2023–2024 rainy and agricultural seasons), sustain acute food insecurity conditions.

Northern Mozambique is currently facing a humanitarian crisis because of natural hazards and an armed insurgency. Since 2017, the insurgency by non-state armed groups in the region had led to the mass displacement of nearly 600,000 people by January 2025. In October 2024, nearly five million people (24% of the country's assessed population) were projected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse food insecurity levels by March 2025. Among them, approximately 912,000 people were likely to experience Emergency (IPC Phase 4) conditions – a deterioration compared to the previous period (August–September 2024). Cyclones Chido, Dikeledi, and Jude also had a significant impact in the region between December 2024 and March 2025, further worsening food insecurity.

(WB accessed 18/02/2025, WorldData.info accessed 09/04/2025, UNHCR accessed 18/02/2025, IPC 28/01/2025, ICG accessed 18/02/2025)

Latest updates on country situation

13 August 2025

Attacks by non-state armed groups from 20 July to 3 August 2025 in Ancuabe, Chiure, and Muidumbe districts of Cabo Delgado displaced over 57,000 people – the largest spike so far in 2025. The majority of displacement occurred in Chiure district, where homes and critical infrastructure were damaged or destroyed. The displaced population is sheltering in schools or with host families, with urgent needs. Humanitarian access remains highly constrained, with reports of ransom demands on trucks and the looting of aid intended for assisting the displaced, 58% of whom are children. Children separated from their families face heightened risks of violence, exploitation, and abuse. Severe education disruptions in Cabo Delgado elevate child protection risks. Recent attacks have led to the closure of 87 schools in Chiure district, affecting 48,000 students and 490 teachers, according to government sources. This is alongside the 117 schools that remain closed in Cabo Delgado. (STC 08/08/2025, IOM 05/08/2025, MNA 08/08/2025)

04 August 2025

From 24–30 July 2025, escalating violence by non-state armed groups displaced over 49,000 people from the Chiure Velho administrative post to Chiure Sede, Cabo Delgado. Most of the displaced, primarily women and children, are in transit centres or with host communities. Urgent needs include food, shelter, NFIs, and clean water. (CCCM Cluster 31/07/2025, UN 03/08/2025)

29 July 2025

From 20–28 July 2025, the escalation of violence by non-state armed groups in Ancuabe, Chiure, and Muidumbe districts in Cabo Delgado displaced nearly 47,000 people, mostly women and children. Most of them had sought refuge in schools, host communities, and temporary shelters in Chiure by 28 July. Displacements are expected to rise given new arrivals. Urgent needs include food, shelter, and NFIs. (IOM 30/07/2025, ECHO 28/07/2025)

24 June 2025

In northern Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province, there has been a significant increase in child abductions over the past few months, especially from May–June 2025. Al Shabaab, an armed group linked to the Islamic State, has taken at least 120 children. The abductions, which have occurred across various districts, are believed to be motivated by forced labour, child soldier recruitment, and forced marriages, all within the context of current hostilities. Children in northern Mozambique are experiencing severe trauma, displacement, interrupted education because of school closures, family separations, increased health risks in overcrowded shelters, and protection concerns. Specific incidents in January, March, and May included children being killed or going missing. Those who get released urgently require immediate medical care, vital psychological assistance, and reintegration mechanisms in their communities. (HRW 24/06/2025, UNICEF 03/06/2025, OCHA 12/06/2025)

27 May 2025

Between January–April 2025, non-state armed group attacks displaced over 43,000 people across Cabo Delgado, Nampula, and Niassa provinces. In Ancuabe district alone in Cabo Delgado, the attacks newly displaced over 23,000. Women and children are the most affected and face increased protection risks. Urgent humanitarian needs include food, shelter, and essential NFIs. (OCHA 20/05/2025, OCHA 01/05/2025, IOM 15/04/2025)

22 April 2025

By 16 April, an attack by a non-state armed group on 31 March in Nacuale village, Ancuabe district, Cabo Delgado province, had displaced around 15,000 people, mostly women (4,669) and children (7,565). The displaced have sought refuge in various locations, including displacement sites and host communities across Ancuabe, Macomia, Montepuez, and Quissanga districts. The most pressing needs are food, shelter, NFIs, and protection. This attack exemplifies the continued violence against civilians in northern Mozambique since 2017, leading to repeated waves of displacement. Such attacks often involve looting, arrests, abductions, targeted killings, and the destruction of infrastructure, as non-state armed groups aim to demonstrate their presence and instil fear in the population. Displaced people often experience overcrowding in makeshift settlements and host communities, which increases the risk of disease outbreaks. Disruptions to agricultural activities and limited access to markets aggravate food insecurity, affecting both displaced people and host communities.
(RI 28/06/2024, IOM 18/04/2025, UNHCR 21/04/2025)

11 March 2025

On 10 March 2025, Tropical Cyclone Jude made landfall in Mossuril district, Nampula province, with strong winds and heavy rainfall. It caused widespread destruction, leaving many people homeless, without power, and with limited access to services given damaged infrastructure. Preliminary assessments are underway. Approximately 780,000 people are at risk from the strong winds and heavy rains expected from the cyclone, particularly in Nampula and Zambezia. The current rainy season and cyclone season may lead to a rise in cholera cases in these two provinces. Jude is the third cyclone to hit Mozambique since December 2024, adding to the complexities of the humanitarian response in the affected regions. The impact of the two cyclones is placing a significant strain on response efforts, aggravated by conflict, political tensions, and a decline in humanitarian funding. Those affected by the cyclone will likely require shelter, food and NFIs, health services, and protection. (OCHA 10/03/2025, MISAU 11/03/2025, AimNews 11/03/2025)

current crises
in Mozambique


These crises have been identified through the INFORM Severity Index, a tool for measuring and comparing the severity of humanitarian crises globally.

Read more about the Index

MOZ013 - 2025 Cyclone season

Last updated 30/06/2025


Drivers

Cyclone

Crisis level

Country

Severity level

2.8 Medium

Access constraints

3.0

MOZ012 - Drought

Last updated 28/07/2025


Drivers

Drought/drier conditions

Crisis level

Country

Severity level

3.3 High

Access constraints

2.0

MOZ001 - Multiple Crises

Last updated 28/07/2025


Drivers

Conflict/ Violence
Cyclone
Drought/drier conditions

Crisis level

Country

Severity level

3.6 High

Access constraints

3.0

MOZ004 - Conflict in Cabo Delgado

Last updated 28/07/2025


Drivers

Conflict/ Violence

Crisis level

Country

Severity level

3.3 High

Access constraints

3.0

Analysis products
on Mozambique

Mozambique: impact of tropical cyclone Jude

25 March 2025

Mozambique: impact of tropical cyclone Jude

DOCUMENT / PDF / 263 KB

The passage of Tropical Cyclone Jude led to heavy rainfall and flooding, causing injuries, casualties, and extensive damage. By 18 March, the cyclone had resulted in 16 deaths, one missing person, and 135 injuries. By 19 March, over 390,000 people had been affected (85% in Nampula), and more than 89,000 houses were destroyed or damaged.

Natural hazards
Mozambique: Escalating civil unrest leads to increased protection risks and poverty

20 December 2024

Mozambique: Escalating civil unrest leads to increased protection risks and poverty

DOCUMENT / PDF / 260 KB

This report provides an analysis of the risk of escalating civil unrest in Mozambique following the general elections on 9 October 2024. The report provides a brief of the current context in the country, identifies the factors that could lead to further civil unrest, and outlines key impacts should such a risk materialise, including effects on humanitarian operations.

Anticipatory analysisConflict and violence
Mozambique: humanitarian impact of Tropical Cyclone Chido

19 December 2024

Mozambique: humanitarian impact of Tropical Cyclone Chido

DOCUMENT / PDF / 298 KB

On the morning of 15 December, Tropical Cyclone Chido made landfall in Cabo Delgado province, northern Mozambique, as a Category 4 cyclone. The cyclone caused high winds, heavy rainfall, and an increased risk of coastal flooding. By 17 December, 128,000 people (90,000 of whom are children) had been affected in Cabo Delgado province and 46,000 in Nampula province. 

Natural hazards
Mozambique: conflict in Cabo Delgado

17 April 2024

Mozambique: conflict in Cabo Delgado

DOCUMENT / PDF / 430 KB

Since December 2023, the northern region of Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province has seen an escalation in attacks characterised by violence towards civilians and damage to houses, churches, schools, and health centres. 

Conflict and violence
Mozambique: impact of the five-year conflict in Cabo Delgado

07 July 2023

Mozambique: impact of the five-year conflict in Cabo Delgado

DOCUMENT / PDF / 615 KB

In October 2017, violence erupted in Cabo Delgado, northern Mozambique, when armed men occupied the city of Mocimboa da Praia for two days and attacked three police stations, killing 17 people. The report aims to analyse the drivers of conflict in northern Mozambique, particularly in Cabo Delgado province, and their humanitarian impact. The report also includes an overview of people’s coping mechanisms following the conflict.

Conflict and violence
View more

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