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Country analysis

Myanmar


The post-February 2021 coup conflict and other longstanding localised conflicts between the Tatmadaw (the Myanmar armed forces) and ethnic armed organisations, widespread systemic violence, political and economic instability, and natural hazards (e.g. cyclones and floods) drive the humanitarian situation in Myanmar.

Its ethnically diverse population was under military rule from 1962–2011. Through the 2008 constitution, the military shared power with the Government, until the Tatmadaw staged a military coup on 1 February 2021 declaring fraud in the November 2020 multiparty general elections, which the National League for Democracy had won.

In 2025, 19.9 million people will need humanitarian assistance. The country has around 3.5 million IDPs, over 3.2 million of whom were displaced by the coup. Over 1.3 million displaced people, mostly Rohingya, are in Bangladesh, India, Malaysia, or Thailand. Most outflows occurred prior to the coup.

Protection is a key concern, as armed conflict and international humanitarian law violations by the military junta forces and armed resistance groups continue to affect civilians. Access to basic services is limited. Conflict and a lack of economic opportunities threaten livelihoods, particularly for the stateless Rohingya in Rakhine.

Myanmar also faces one of the most constrained humanitarian access situations worldwide.

(AOAV 01/02/2022, CFR accessed 22/01/2025, UNHCR accessed 22/01/2025, OCHA 13/12/2024, ACAPS accessed 22/01/2025)

The post-February 2021 coup conflict and other longstanding localised conflicts between the Tatmadaw (the Myanmar armed forces) and ethnic armed organisations, widespread systemic violence, political and economic instability, and natural hazards (e.g. cyclones and floods) drive the humanitarian situation in Myanmar.

Its ethnically diverse population was under military rule from 1962–2011. Through the 2008 constitution, the military shared power with the Government, until the Tatmadaw staged a military coup on 1 February 2021 declaring fraud in the November 2020 multiparty general elections, which the National League for Democracy had won.

In 2025, 19.9 million people will need humanitarian assistance. The country has around 3.5 million IDPs, over 3.2 million of whom were displaced by the coup. Over 1.3 million displaced people, mostly Rohingya, are in Bangladesh, India, Malaysia, or Thailand. Most outflows occurred prior to the coup.

Protection is a key concern, as armed conflict and international humanitarian law violations by the military junta forces and armed resistance groups continue to affect civilians. Access to basic services is limited. Conflict and a lack of economic opportunities threaten livelihoods, particularly for the stateless Rohingya in Rakhine.

Myanmar also faces one of the most constrained humanitarian access situations worldwide.

(AOAV 01/02/2022, CFR accessed 22/01/2025, UNHCR accessed 22/01/2025, OCHA 13/12/2024, ACAPS accessed 22/01/2025)

Latest updates on country situation

09 July 2025

Malaria cases are on the rise in Myanmar, particularly in Rakhine State, with over 1,000 cases and over 30 deaths so far in 2025. The outbreak has worsened because of the lack of mosquito nets, limited availability of malaria medication, and the need for civilians to move into forested, malaria-prone areas in search of food. Road blockades, restricted airport access, and suspended NGO support are further worsening the situation. (WHO 30/06/2025, The Irrawaddy 02/07/2025)

09 July 2025

Airstrikes and hostilities in northern Sagaing have displaced over 10,000 people since 14 June – many of them fleeing without food or belongings. Earthquake-related damages have forced people to seek shelter in forests, monasteries, and remote areas, where they continue to face harsh conditions and multisectoral needs, such as food, protection, and shelter. With roads blocked and river transport restricted as a result of conflict and insecurity, access to aid is limited. (OCHA 01/07/2025, The Irrawaddy 02/07/2025)

17 June 2025

Since June 2025, heavy monsoon rains and river overflows have caused widespread flooding in northern and western Myanmar, with Kachin state being the worst affected, followed by Rakhine state. In Kachin, floodwaters inundating mountainous villages and refugee camps have temporarily displaced over 23,000 people. In Rakhine state, the floods have affected around 7,500 people. By 11 June, at least five people had died as a result in Kachin. Additional flood impacts have been reported in Sagaing and Magway regions, where agricultural lands have sustained considerable damage. The rains have arrived unusually early this year, weeks before the typical peak in late June or July, resulting in premature flooding during a critical harvest season and leading to severe agricultural losses. The floods are worsening needs across conflict-affected and earthquake-hit areas where many shelters are unable to withstand heavy rain, increasing the risk of collapse, disease outbreaks, and water contamination. (OCHA 11/06/2025, ECHO accessed 17/06/2025, Examiner 06/06/2025)

30 April 2025

One month after a magnitude-7.7 earthquake struck Myanmar on 28 March 2025, women, girls, and children’s needs remain critical. Over ten million women and girls already needed humanitarian assistance before the earthquake, with 4.6 million women of reproductive age and 223,000 currently pregnant living in the affected areas. The earthquake damaged over 640 health facilities, preventing women’s access to crucial maternal and reproductive care, such as prenatal, postnatal, and urgent obstaetric services. Over 1.5 million adolescent girls face heightened protection risks, with overcrowded shelters lacking privacy, lighting, and safety measures. Around two million children require immediate assistance and protection. The earthquake also damaged over 800 schools and destroyed or rendered 279 non-functional, severely disrupting children’s access to education and safe learning environments. Conflict and insecurity further restrict humanitarian access, disrupt relief operations, and heighten protection risks for already vulnerable populations, particularly women, girls, and children. (UNFPA 25/04/2025, UNFPA 18/04/2025, UNICEF 18/04/2025)

05 March 2025

Healthcare needs in Myanmar are on the rise, particularly in the northwestern region. Since the acute watery diarrhoea outbreak in June 2024, nine states out of 17 have reported outbreaks of water- and vector-borne diseases. Clean water, medicine, and vaccine shortages have worsened the situation. In 2025, it is estimated that 12.9 million people will need healthcare assistance, while 1.2 million unvaccinated children under five are at high risk for vaccine-preventable diseases. Restrictions imposed by the military junta on transportation have aggravated the scarcity of medical supplies, particularly in Chin and Rakhine states and in Sagaing region. The number of displaced people in these regions is also increasing. Rakhine and Sagaing account for over 1.5 million of Myanmar’s 3.2 million IDPs. The US funding freeze is worsening the crisis, as it severely limits the ability of humanitarian organisations to deliver lifesaving health assistance to those in urgent need. With the rainy season approaching, conditions are expected to deteriorate even further. (WHO 28/02/2025, RFA 28/02/2025, UNHCR 18/02/2025)

04 February 2025

Intense armed clashes between anti-junta armed groups and military junta forces, as well as raids conducted by the latter, have displaced around 26,000 residents of Pwintbyu and Salin townships in Magway region since late January 2025. The new displacements will likely take the number of IDPs in the region to around 275,000. Significant damage to homes has been reported, with the newly displaced people living in makeshift shelters. Harvested rice crops in some areas have also been destroyed. This will heighten the shelter and food security needs in the region. Based on previous displacement events, the newly displaced people will likely urgently require food, water, health, protection assistance, shelter, and household items. Armed conflict, movement and administrative restrictions, the obstruction of humanitarian operations, and violence against aid workers highly constrain humanitarian access in Myanmar. Transportation restrictions also hinder the delivery of essential services and disrupt the supply chain. (RFA 03/02/2025, Myanmar NOW 03/02/2025, UNHCR 31/01/2025)

02 January 2025

Since 2022, around 15,900 Rohingya people have attempted to undertake dangerous maritime journeys in over 190 overcrowded and unseaworthy vessels – nearly 50% of which embarked just within 2024 (until 19 December) – from Myanmar or Bangladesh in hopes of reaching other countries, such as Malaysia and Indonesia. Over 1,400 have died or gone missing, 50% in 2024 alone. Nearly 95% of the vessels that undertook the journeys in 2024 embarked from Rakhine state, from where the Rohingya are fleeing to escape intense armed conflict and violence, forced recruitment, high food insecurity levels, and severe access restrictions. These people need food, water, healthcare, and protection during and after their journeys. Such journeys are likely to increase in the coming months given non-monsoon weather conditions, a trend that has been observed in previous years. (UNHCR accessed 02/01/2025, UNHCR 05/11/2024, OCHA 13/12/2024)

current crises
in Myanmar


These crises have been identified through the INFORM Severity Index, a tool for measuring and comparing the severity of humanitarian crises globally.

Read more about the Index

MMR007 - 2025 Earthquake

Last updated 26/06/2025


Drivers

Earthquake

Crisis level

Country

Severity level

4.2 Very High

Access constraints

5.0

MMR004 - Post-coup conflict

Last updated 26/06/2025


Drivers

Conflict/ Violence

Crisis level

Country

Severity level

4.5 Very High

Access constraints

5.0

MMR001 - Multiple crises

Last updated 26/06/2025


Drivers

Conflict/ Violence
Earthquake

Crisis level

Country

Severity level

4.6 Very High

Access constraints

5.0

MMR002 - Conflict in Rakhine

Last updated 26/06/2025


Drivers

Conflict/ Violence

Crisis level

Country

Severity level

4.1 Very High

Access constraints

5.0

MMR003 - Conflict in Kachin and Shan

Last updated 26/06/2025


Drivers

Conflict/ Violence

Crisis level

Country

Severity level

3.9 High

Access constraints

5.0

Analysis products
on Myanmar

Myanmar earthquake: Bago region pre-crisis profile

22 April 2025

Myanmar earthquake: Bago region pre-crisis profile

DOCUMENT / PDF / 370 KB

On 28 March 2025, a magnitude-7.7 earthquake hit Myanmar’s Sagaing region, with a subsequent magnitude-6.4 aftershock shaking the Mandalay region. This has led to a state of emergency in six states and regions: Bago, Magway, Mandalay, Nay Pyi Taw, Sagaing, and Shan. Prior to the earthquake, around two million people in Bago region were in need of humanitarian assistance. 

Natural hazards
Myanmar: Exposure to seasonal hazards in earthquake-affected areas

22 April 2025

Myanmar: Exposure to seasonal hazards in earthquake-affected areas

DOCUMENT / PDF / 421 KB

Myanmar has recently been struck by a magnitude-7.7 earthquake and is approaching the start of its monsoon and cyclone seasons, with forecasts predicting above-average rainfall and temperatures. These challenging conditions, coupled with conflict, poverty, and diminished coping capacities, may present significant risks to the population. 

Natural hazards
Myanmar-Bangladesh: trends in Rohingya cross-border displacement and outlook for 2025

17 April 2025

Myanmar-Bangladesh: trends in Rohingya cross-border displacement and outlook for 2025

DOCUMENT / PDF / 150 KB

This report examines trends in Rohingya cross-border displacement in 2024 and early 2025, along with humanitarian needs during the displacement process and upon arrival in Bangladesh specifically. It identifies the drivers of movements and variables that may influence the outlook for displacement in 2025.

Displacement

Attached resources

Myanmar earthquake: Shan pre-crisis profile

10 April 2025

Myanmar earthquake: Shan pre-crisis profile

DOCUMENT / PDF / 392 KB

On 28 March 2025, a magnitude-7.7 earthquake struck Myanmar’s Sagaing region. In southern Shan state, the most severe shaking affected Hopong, Hsi Hseng, Kalaw, Langkho, Lawksawk, Nyaungshwe, Pinlaung, and Taunggyi townships. Prior to the earthquake, these townships were already dealing with significant humanitarian needs.

Natural hazards
Myanmar earthquake: Sagaing pre-crisis profile

01 April 2025

Myanmar earthquake: Sagaing pre-crisis profile

DOCUMENT / PDF / 721 KB

On 28 March 2025, a 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck Sagaing region, Myanmar. Only 12 minutes after the earthquake hit, a powerful 6.4-magnitude aftershock was registered, worsening the destruction and causing additional damage in Mandalay and Sagaing regions, hindering rescue operations and increasing casualties.

Natural hazards
View more

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