This report examines major humanitarian crises worldwide to identify likely developments and corresponding needs. The report focuses on countries where the crisis trend indicates a deterioration in 2018 and a corresponding increase in need. It also includes countries where crisis is not predicted to worsen, but is likely to remain severe. 

As of 21 November, an estimated 622,000 Rohingya refugees fled Myanmar to Bangladesh. The influx began on 25 August, after the Myanmar Army launched security operations in northern Rakhine state. In September, an average of approximately 14,500 people arrived daily. The estimated number of people in need was 1.2 million in the latest Humanitarian Response Plan of October 2017. 

Access has been deteriorating throughout CAR in October and November 2017. In particular, access constraints due to violence and restrictions on movement have been reported in Batangafo (Ouham), Bangassou and Pombolo (Mbomou), Kaga-Bandoro (Nana-Grebizi), Zemio (Haut-Mbomou), and Nouffou (Mambere- Kadei). As of early November, over 200 attacks have targeted humanitarian workers, with 13 workers killed since January.

On 6 November the Saudi Arabia-led military coalition announced a temporary closure of all Yemen’s airports, seaports and land crossings, effectively halting access to commercial and humanitarian goods to 27 million people. The blockage was announced after Houthis launched a missile from Yemen targeting Riyadh airport, Saudi-Arabia on 4 November. 

Approximately 426,000 people living in besieged Eastern Ghouta are affected by protracted conflict and recent deterioration of access restraints. Despite the area being the part of the de-escalation agreement, the government forces renewed their airstrikes and shelling as of the end of September, which resulted in damage and loss of civilian infrastructure, hospitals, and schools.

On the evening of 12 November, a 7.3 magnitude earthquake occurred in Kermanshah province with widespread damage reported across the province. Sar pol-e Zahab and Qasr-e Shirin are reported hardest hit. Early estimates indicate that over 400 lives have been lost and over 6,600 people were injured. Reports indicate that an estimated 70,000 people are in need of emergency shelter.

Tropical Storm (Category 4) Damrey made landfall in Vietnam on the morning of 4 November along the south-central coastal region, particularly affecting Khanh Hoa province. Over 1,300 homes have been destroyed and over 122,000 partially damaged. An estimated 500,000 people have been affected in these provinces and 24,000 remain displaced in evacuation centres. 

As of 5 November, some 609,000 people have fled northern Rakhine state in Myanmar to Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh following an eruption of violence on 25 August. A large number has likely also been internally displaced within Rakhine state, but data is not available on this. 

Tropical Storm Maria formed in the central Atlantic Ocean and is the tenth most intense on record. At its peak, the hurricane caused catastrophic damage and numerous fatalities across the north-eastern Caribbean, and is considered to be the worst natural disaster on record in Dominica. It also caused catastrophic damage in Puerto Rico.

While over the last 12 months there has been some improvement in terms of education service provision in the three northeast Nigerian states most affected by the ongoing insurgency, there are still significant barriers for many children. The assessment looks at the situation across three main levels of the formal education sector as well as analysing the influence of the security situation, and accessibility to livelihoods and a ‘normal life’.

The lessons learned are a result of the analysis of main findings and lessons from the impact and response to Tropical Storm Erika in August 2015 in Dominica, and hurricanes tropical storms that impacted locations with similar characteristics to Dominica. The aim of this product is to improve the performance of humanitarian actors responding to Hurricane Maria, assist agencies working in the response, and encourage positive action by decision makers.

Pouplation: 71,200 (2011); 67% of people live in urban areas; growth 0% per annum 1990–2012, due mainly to the emigration of young people; birth rate 16 per 1,000 people (est. 26 in 1970); life expectancy 77 years (The Commonwealth). The population is mostly of African and mixed African/European descent, with European, Syrian and Carib (2.9% in 2001 census) minorities. There is a Carib reserve on part of the east of the island, referred to as the Kalinago Territory

The Commonwealth of Dominica is a sovereign island country, part of the Windward Islands in the Lesser Antilles archipelago in the Caribbean Sea. Dominica is vulnerable to a wide range of natural hazards. The most common and historically most significant are tropical storms and hurricanes. This country profile expands on background information such as the society, the history, economy, infrastructure, and the politics, as well as baseline sectoral information.

Over 3,360 refugees from the Democratic Republic of Congo fled into Zambia between 30 August and 3 October 2017. The refugees have been fleeing inter-ethnic conflicts as well as clashes between government forces and armed militias in Haut-Katanga province. Several of them have reported extreme brutality committed by all parties against civilians. 

As of 22 September, an estimated 429,000 Rohingya people have arrived in Bangladesh since 25 August. Rohingya started fleeing northern Rakhine, Myanmar as the Myanmar Army is carrying out crackdown operations in the area. Operations, which have killed at least 400 people, started after the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army carried out attacks against police- and border posts.

Hurricane Irma first made landfall on the northeast Caribbean islands during the early hours local time of 6 September. 169,000 people and 75,000 buildings were exposed to wind speeds higher than 252km/h. 5.5 million people lived in areas exposed to winds in excess of 120km/h.  At least 37 people have been reported dead. 

ACAPS and the Mixed Migration Platform have produced a new set of scenarios, outlining possible developments in Syria and neighbouring countries over the next nine months. Following scenario-building workshops, five scenarios were identified. The report outlines triggers that could drive these scenarios, as well as the impact and humanitarian consequences of each scenario.

An estimated 54% of the population in Monguno Local Government Area (LGA) is displaced, and the LGA is among those in Borno with the highest burden of population displacement and needs. Over 122,000 people from other LGAs are displaced in Monguno LGA, and another 32,000 IDPs have returned to the LGA. Many returning IDPs are living in secondary displacement and in dire need of food, shelter, access to livelihood opportunities, and healthcare.

On 7 September, an 8.1 magnitude earthquake struck Mexico’s southern Pacific Coast, about 8km southwest of Pijijiapan in Chiapas state. A related 7.6 earthquake occurred in Guatemala the same evening. In Mexico, 90 people were killed and at least 200 injured. In Guatemala, an estimated 4,500 people were affected.

Hurricane Irma made landfall on northeast Caribbean islands during the early hours local time of 6 September, affecting Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, Bahamas, British Virgin Islands, Cuba, St Barthélemy, St. Martin, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Haiti, US Virgin Islands, and Turks and Caicos. Two million people live in areas exposed to in excess of 120 km/h winds.