Serbia

As of 16 November, close to 820,000 people have arrived in Europe by sea in 2015. 85% of the arrivals are from the world’s top ten refugee-producing countries. As the sea route to Italy via North Africa is longer and more risky, and as the number of Syrians has increased, more people are travelling through Greece and then through the Balkans to reach northern and western Europe.

Over 800,000 asylum seekers and refugees have made their way towards Europe by land and sea in 2015. As the sea route to Italy via North Africa is longer and more risky, and as the number of Syrians have increased, more people are traveling through Greece and then through the Balkans to reach northern and western Europe. 

Continuous, heavy rainfall, commencing on 13 May, has resulted in extensive flooding in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), and Croatia. The economic impact is enormous. Preliminary estimates show recovery costs of more than one billion euros (USD 1.4 billion) in Serbia and hundreds of millions of euros for BiH. In Croatia, damage to agriculture alone is expected to reach at least 30 million euros.

In October 2015, ACAPS undertook a scoping study to better understand gaps in information and analysis in the context of the asylum-seeker crisis in Europe. One of the key priorities that emerged from the consultation was the need for scenario building, outlining possible developments and anticipated impact on the transit countries over the next six to nine months. Three workshops in Athens, Belgrade and Geneva, were held to develop and validate these scenarios.