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Food security conditions in Burundi are projected to deteriorate significantly from October–December 2025, with 1.8 million people (15% of the population) projected to reach Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels, up by 630,000 from August–September. The deterioration coincides with the lean season, when household food stocks are depleted and purchasing power declines. Rising food prices, reduced livelihood opportunities, and further cuts in humanitarian assistance are expected to worsen needs. Macroeconomic instability and sustained inflation will particularly affect the Imbo Plains and Eastern Lowlands, where households depend atypically on market purchases amid below-average incomes. Anticipated La Niña conditions may bring below-average rainfall from October–December, undermining seasonal crop production, while localised flooding and restricted cross-border trade with Rwanda may worsen food insecurity across affected livelihood zones. (IPC 07/10/2025, FEWS NET 01/10/2025)

On 30 September 2025, a magnitude 6.9 earthquake struck northern Cebu province, causing severe humanitarian impacts across the province. By 8 October, at least 72 people had died, 559 were injured, and more than 699,000 were affected. The quake affected 62,531 houses (4,854 destroyed, 57,677 damaged) and 733 critical infrastructure sites, including schools and hospitals. Over 6,900 have been displaced – likely an underestimation considering the number of houses damaged or destroyed. More than 3,600 aftershocks, as well as power outages and landslides, are impeding relief operations and access to remote communities. Damage to infrastructure and transport networks continues to hamper the delivery of food, medicine, and relief supplies. Residents face critical shortages of safe water and sanitation, and health authorities warn of increased risk of waterborne diseases. States of calamity have been declared in affected municipalities, with national and humanitarian responses underway. (NDRRMC 08/10/2025, OCHA 03/10/2025, IFRC 05/10/2025)

Since September 2025, armed confrontations between non-state armed groups in Dibulla municipality of La Guajira department have confined around 1,500 people. Educational activities were suspended for two weeks as a result. Although classes have resumed since then, persistent fear and uneven attendance continue to disrupt learning, while a potential rise in school dropouts elevates the risk of children and adolescents being recruited or exploited by armed groups. The confinement has also restricted the community’s access to fishing areas and agricultural plots, threatening primary livelihoods. La Guajira’s existing vulnerabilities, including poor access to clean water, inadequate sanitation infrastructure, and limited hygiene education, especially among Indigenous and rural populations, further amplify the impact of the current crisis. While specific urgent needs for those confined have not yet been reported, evidence from similar situations across Colombia points to critical priorities including food, protection, livelihoods, and WASH assistance. (OCHA 03/10/202, AAH accessed 07/10/2025)