EXPECTED FROM THE LAST QUARTER OF 2024
La Niña-induced temperature and precipitation anomalies are expected from the end of 2024 to the first quarter of 2025 in southern Africa (wet conditions), Asia and the Pacific (wet conditions), the Caribbean (wet conditions), Central and South America (dry/wet conditions), Central Asia (dry conditions), and East Africa (dry conditions).
Increasing humanitarian needs
Between late 2024 and the beginning of 2025, several countries already facing humanitarian crises may experience floods, droughts, and epidemics as a result of La Niña-related precipitation and temperature anomalies.
These are likely to increase the humanitarian needs of exposed populations, with food security and health expected to be the most affected sectors. El Niño affected global weather patterns from July 2023 to May 2024, with its peak occurring between September–December 2023.
Some countries faced drier-than-usual conditions, while others experienced heavy rainfall and flooding beyond the expected levels for their typical rainy season. El Niño already aggravated humanitarian needs in countries in crisis, especially for food and health services
What does ENSO stand for?
ENSO stands for El Niño–Southern Oscillation, a periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperatures and in the air pressure across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
ENSO is one of the main drivers of interannual climate variability. The two extreme ENSO phases are El Niño and La Niña. El Niño occurs when the surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than average, while La Niña occurs when these waters become cooler than average.
These changes in sea surface temperatures can cause shifts in atmospheric pressure and winds, leading to changes in rainfall patterns, temperature, and other weather-related phenomena worldwide.
Climate change can amplify the rainfall variability related to ENSO and increase the likelihood of extreme weather events. Global warming is also increasing ENSO variability, and strong El Niño and La Niña events have occurred more frequently than the pre-1960 average.
More frequent swings from a strong El Niño to a strong La Niña are anticipated in the future.
Climate change has the potential to amplify La Niña-induced rainfall and temperature anomalies, triggering unpredictable and potentially more extreme outcomes.
Humanitarian impacts from La Niña in 2024 - 2025
Countries at risk
Click on this interactive diagram to explore the rainfall and temperature anomalies, the associated hazards, and the main humanitarian impact dimensions of La Niña.
GLOBAL HUMANITARIAN IMPACTS OF LA NIÑA
How does ACAPS assess the risk of La Niña impact?
The assigned risk level to the impacts of La Niña is based on expert judgement following an assessment per country of the indicators and factors listed as follows:
historical impact of previous La Niña events in the country
typical influence of La Niña from September to February in the country
seasonal precipitation and temperature forecasts
pre-existing humanitarian crises and vulnerabilities to La Niña-induced hazards
agricultural seasonality
national and local response capacity to natural hazards and their impact
expected impact on agriculture, livestock, and fishery
potential spillover effects of La Niña on local food prices and the economy
potential disease outbreaks and increased health needs.
Analysis products
on
El Niño & La Niña Global Analysis
06 August 2024
Colombia: drought and flooding in the Orinoquia region
DOCUMENT / PDF / 635 KB
The onset of El Niño in Colombia in November 2023 led to dry conditions in the Orinoquia region. These conditions resulted in food insecurity, water shortages and rationing, and wildfires, affecting an estimated 195,000 people, predominantly in Arauca department.
Attached resources
31 July 2024
Afghanistan: key climate change related risks between 2024–2030
DOCUMENT / PDF / 2 MB
This risk report outlines the main emerging risks driven or compounded by climate change with the potential to affect Afghanistan’s humanitarian situation and the wellbeing of its population between 2024–2030.
Attached resources
18 July 2024
Grenada: impact of Hurricane Beryl
DOCUMENT / PDF / 867 KB
Hurricane Beryl made landfall on 1 July as a category G4, moving west-northwest at approximately 20 mph with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph (UN 02/07/2024). In Grenada, Carriacou, Petite Martinique, and northern Grenada have been the hardest hit.
18 July 2024
Jamaica: impact of Hurricane Beryl
DOCUMENT / PDF / 374 KB
Hurricane Beryl hit Jamaica on 3 July 2024. The Category 4 hurricane is historically among the most powerful to have affected the country. By 9 July, 1,876 people had evacuated from coastal areas, such as Old Harbour Bay in St. Catherine, to 160 shelters in safer areas.
18 July 2024
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines: impact of Hurricane Beryl
DOCUMENT / PDF / 630 KB
On 1 July, Hurricane Beryl made landfall in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG) as a Category 4 hurricane, later evolving into a Category 5 hurricane boasting maximum sustained winds of 270km/h.